This article was originally written on 15 October 2004 and published on blog.luxzenburg.org. It is republished here as a historical document and reflects the author’s ideas at the time of writing.

I read a short note on Wikipedia about the region of ‘Asir in Saudi Arabia, which included the following passage:

Saudi Arabia annexed ‘Asir, Najran and Jizan from Yemen in 1934, but the culture of the region has more in common with that of Yemen than with the rest of Saudi Arabia. This is most visible in clothing and architecture, which have been adapted to the sometimes heavy rainfall. Moreover, ‘Asir has been much less influenced by the oil boom than the rest of Saudi Arabia, and the modern urban development of cities like Riyadh is entirely absent here. Tribal laws and customs are still exceptionally strong among the population of this region.

Following this informative passage, a trivia section contains the brief note that:

12 of the 15 Saudi hijackers in the 9/11 attacks came from the ‘Asir region.

As a political geographer, I begin to wonder: is this once again a case in which religion is being used by certain individuals — the twelve — to serve a national agenda, namely the secession of ‘Asir from Saudi Arabia? It is not the first time, and I had made this kind of observation before, but could not find a conclusive explanation. Why would Saudi citizens attack the main pillar of their own government, while they benefit so much from both that government and the sale of oil to the US? It was somewhat logical that dissidents would attack their government or its biggest sponsor — but it did not quite add up.

Now, however, it seems clearer: ‘Asir has not benefited from the Saudi oil boom. It was conquered and annexed in the 1930s and is considered occupied territory. Its residents are regarded as Yemenis, not Saudis, and maintain their cultural ties with Yemen. Such a place is a breeding ground for separatist movements. But it is difficult to keep the West’s attention focused on Saudi Arabia, because so many other regions demand attention and Saudi Arabia provides so much to the West — oil, but also strategic partnership in a contested region. No Western nation will confront the Saudis over a relatively small region like ‘Asir, and the people of that region will realise that a struggle for independence or autonomy has no chance of success.

Then the extremist strategy comes into view: seeking alliance with other dissidents and using religion as an instrument to destabilise a totalitarian government. In this case, people from ‘Asir aligned with another dissident, Osama Bin Laden. In return for his support they carried out the most devastating attacks on the US since Pearl Harbor — and in doing so dragged the world into a war on terror that to date has known only losers. The US has lost its credibility in the world. Islam has lost and is regarded as a religion of aggression. The Saudis have lost, forced as they are to accept democratic reforms. And ‘Asir has lost: it received nothing from Bin Laden. And Bin Laden himself? He had nowhere left to go.

A sad story of poor strategy, poor planning and poor calculation.