This article was originally written on 30 March 2014 and published on blog.luxzenburg.org — twelve years before the large-scale Russian invasion of Ukraine in 2022, and eight years before Finland’s accession to NATO. It is republished here as a historical document and reflects the author’s ideas at the time of writing.
An article in the Times of India gives pause for thought. According to a former Russian Minister of Economic Affairs, Putin does not only want Crimea back. Belarus, more parts of Ukraine, and even EU member state Finland he reportedly wants to ‘reclaim’ — to restore the old Russian Empire.
Viewed from our frame of reference, a war of conquest is unthinkable. Many politicians and commentators insist that Putin is not pursuing that goal either. The Crimea annexation was a kind of impulse, an accident, some say.
But from the perspective of a Putin or another autocrat, it is entirely logical. He has been in his position far longer than any of his opponents in the West. Patience is a virtue. President Bush was a hawk — surrounded by hawks — who had to be watched carefully. Currently, a dove occupies the White House who will not strike back quickly. As for the leaders of European member states, he currently has nothing to fear from them: they are busy navel-gazing, afraid of losing power to populist nationalists, and trying to solve the economic crisis. In the process, they are hopelessly divided on the international stage. A perfect opportunity to see how far you can push your goals.
Of course, one can question the claims of a minister who fell from Putin’s favour some time ago. The man may want to settle a score.
But I return to the point of our defence. Cutting defence budgets further is undesirable. Better safe than sorry. As Obama already said: Europe must honour its commitments. The NATO agreement is to spend 2% of GDP on defence. Only Poland and Norway come close to that. The Netherlands currently spends just 1.3% on defence and wants to cut further.
EU member states see advantages in cooperation, but in the meantime they all want everything: their own tanks, their own fighter jets, their own transport aircraft, their own paratroopers, their own submarines, aircraft carriers. The US spends 600 billion dollars — more than the rest of the world combined — on defence, and has one paratrooper training programme. Russia spends 90 billion. Also one. EU member states jointly spend 290 billion and divide this across 28 separate programmes.
At some point, the nationalist egos of politicians and citizens will need to be set aside in order to truly cooperate. Do we really need to bloody our noses in a drawn-out, bloody war first, before we can say we have learned from history?